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12/22/2019 08:12am
Opening Day: 2019 IPOs in review

2019 had some big names hitting the stock market but not all performed as well as expected. Unicorns Uber (UBER), Lyft (LYFT) and SmileDirectClub (SDC) were among some Initial Public Offerings that fell short of expectations. On the flip side, BridgeBio (BBIO), Luckin Coffee (LK) and Zoom Video (ZM) had impressive gains.

Best Performers:

BridgeBio Pharma issued its IPO back in June for $17 a share and by December the stock has more than doubled, finishing this week at $41.54. BridgeBio Pharma is a drug discovery company aiming to treat genetic diseases.

Back in October, Piper Jaffray analyst Tyler Van Buren reiterated an Overweight rating on BridgeBio with a $50 price target after new preclinical data for infigratinib in achondroplasia were presented. The analyst argued that infigratinib could capture 50% achondroplasia market share by 2035, which could amount to over $1.5B in sales. He sees "best-in-class potential" for the drug.

Luckin Coffee debuted in May with an IPO price of $17 and has gained over 80% since its opening day. Luckin Coffee is a chain of coffee shops in China.

Last month, KeyBanc analyst Eric Gonzalez raised his price target for Luckin Coffee to $32 from $24 following investor meetings with the company's CFO Reinout Schakel. In a research note to investors, Gonzalez said he believes Luckin's execution continues to prove out its business model, targeting high affordability, convenience, and quality and feels ongoing momentum and the stock's relatively low valuation suggest further upside over the next year. He reiterated an Overweight rating on the shares.

Jumping almost 80% since its debut, Zoom Video issued its IPO in April with a list price of $36. The company provides remote conferencing services using cloud computing.

Earlier this month, Piper Jaffray analyst James Fish initiated coverage of Zoom Video with a Neutral rating and $70 price target. The analyst is "very positive" on the company overall, but sees upside to estimates as factored in at this time and believes Zoom needs to grow into its valuation.

10X Genomics (TXG) is up about 70% since its September IPO. 10x Genomics is a single-cell sequencing company.

Back in October, JPMorgan analyst Tycho Peterson initiated coverage of 10x Genomics with an Overweight rating and $55 price target. The analyst said 10x Genomics has a more attractive sales growth profile relative to peers, which warrants a valuation premium. Peterson added that he expects the company to grow revenues at about 29% annually over the next five years.

Tradeweb (TW) is also among the biggest winners, rising by almost 70%. The company went public back in April at $27 a share. Tradeweb is an international financial services company that builds and operates electronic over-the-counter marketplaces for companies that trade fixed income products and derivatives.

On Monday, Credit Suisse analyst Ari Ghosh upgraded Tradeweb Markets to Outperform from Neutral as part of his broader research note on the U.S. Exchanges sector. Ghosh said he believes the exchange industry is positioned for long-term growth driven by secular tailwinds benefiting its transactional, data, and technology businesses. While the group is trading at a 9% premium to its 7-year average relative to S&P 500, Ghosh said he expects accelerating volume growth, solid data demand, operating margin expansion and investor preference for counter-cyclicals to drive stock prices and support valuation levels in 2020.

Progyny (PGNY) issued its IPO in October for $13.50 a share and has gained about 50% since its debut. Progyny provides health benefits management services for U.S. fertility patients.

Last month, JPMorgan analyst Anne Samuel initiated coverage of Progyny with an Overweight rating and $26 price target. The company is a data-driven fertility benefits provider with a differentiated model in a large and growing fertility market, Samuel told investors. Further, with 80 clients today, Progyny is "minimally penetrated" relative to the 8,000 self-insured employers it views as addressable, added the analyst. She believes the company's EBTIDA growth should support the valuation over time.

Worst Performers:

SmileDirectClub went public in September at $23 a share but the stock did not perform as expected, falling about 65% to $7.96 per share. SmileDirectClub is an online dentistry company that sells teeth aligners directly to consumers on its website and in its "SmileShops" starting at $1,895 for a two-year plan.

On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs analyst Nathan Rich initiated coverage of SmileDirectClub with a Neutral rating and $10 price target. The analyst expects the direct-to-consumer clear aligner market to expand over the next several years, but he thinks the marketing costs associated with driving conversion could weigh on profitability, especially as competitors enter and general dentists compete for less complex cases. Increased marketing spend this year has driven more traffic to SmileDirectClub's site, though its conversions rates have remained flattish at around 1%, Rich told investors in a research note. In addition, several states have or are considering making changes to the rules governing remote dentistry that could impact the company's store model, added the analyst.

Uber's IPO was one of the most anticipated of 2019. The company came to market back in May at $45 per share but the stock is down over 60% since its debut. Uber is a ride-hailing company offering services that include peer-to-peer ridesharing, ride service hailing, food delivery, and a micromobility system with electric bikes and scooters.

Earlier this month, Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter initiated coverage of Uber Technologies with a Neutral rating and $26 price target. In order to appease investors' "resurgent interest" in profitability, Uber will need to scale back its ambitions, exit some businesses, and restructure, Potter told investors in a research note. He believes "this is a tough story to tell" for a recent initial public offering, but adds that if Uber progresses toward positive EBITDA in 2021, investors will likely respond favorably.

Its peer Lyft is not performing much better, down almost 40% since its IPO. The company debuted back in March at $72 a share. Lyft is a ridesharing company that develops, markets, and operates the Lyft mobile app, offering car rides, scooters, a bicycle-sharing system, and a food delivery services.

Last month, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth added Lyft to his list of top picks in the internet sector following third quarter earnings, saying the ride-hailing giant reported "significantly" better than expected revenue and EBITDA as it continues to take share of an increasingly rational U.S. rideshare market, thereby accelerating its path to profitability. The analyst has an Overweight rating on Lyft.

Doyu (DOYU) went public in July, initially listing at $11.50. Since its debut, the stock has dropped about 35%. DouYu is a Chinese video-game live-streaming platform that had initially planned to start its IPO roadshow in May but postponed it following President Donald Trump's threat to boost tariffs on China.

Earlier this month, Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong initiated coverage of DouYu with a Buy rating and $8.90 price target, while JPMorgan analyst Daniel Chen downgraded the stock to Neutral as he is more cautious on the company's 2020 profit outlook.

SciPlay (SCPL) went public in May at $16 a share but has seen a 20% drop in value since its debut. Sciplay is a wholly owned subsidiary of Scientific Games (SGMS), a leading developer of technology-based products and services and associated content for worldwide gaming and lottery markets.

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng double-downgraded SciPlay to Sell from Buy with a price target of $10, down from $12. The analyst cited "stagnant bookings" of the 88 Fortunes, Quick Hit, Gold Fish, and Hot Shot Casino slot portfolio along with "slowing momentum" for Bingo and Monopoly lines, suggesting that the company's transition toward emerging casual games "not based on real world slot machines" may be more difficult than originally anticipated.

While not as bad, Peloton (PTON) still disappointed many as it opened below its $29 IPO price in its debut in late September and has fallen about 30% throughout the following weeks. Peloton is best known for at-home fitness equipment and accompanying streaming fitness services.

A week ago, Argus analyst Jim Kelleher initiated coverage of Peloton with a Buy rating and $40 price target, citing its positive fundamentals and attractive valuation. The analyst noted that the company is benefiting from consumer trends offering "personal privacy and interactive technology," while the shares trade at a "discount" valuation relative to the peer group of "app economy" stocks based on the price/sales-to-revenue-growth multiple. Kelleher added that the Google Trends data has Peloton surpassing searches for Planet Fitness.

Notable:

WeWork (WE) pulled its IPO earlier this year amid investors’ concerns after the company released its prospectus. In a short period of time, the company went from a $47B valuation to reportedly considering bankruptcy. WeWork’s co-founder and then CEO Adam Neumann would also step down given increasing pressure from directors and investors following the failed attempt to take the company public.  

"Opening Day" is The Fly's recurring series of stories on the latest initial public offerings, their performance, analyst commentary and upcoming IPOs.

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